Dive Brief:
- Middle income jobs, a much-discussed presidential election topic, are making a comeback, according to an analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and reported in the New York Times. The NY Fed's findings could mean America's economic rebound has finally arrived for the middle class, since the Great Recession ended in 2009.
- According to the analysis, from 2013 to 2015 employers added nearly 2.3 million workers earning from $30,000 to $60,000 annually in business sectors including education, construction, transportation and social services. By the NY Fed's analysis, that is about 50% higher than high-wage or low-wage categories during the same period.
- “The tide has begun to turn,” William C. Dudley, president of the New York Fed, told the Times. “For the first time in quite a while, we are seeing gains in middle-wage jobs actually outnumber gains in higher- and lower-wage jobs nationwide.”
Dive Insight:
“[The Fed study] is important, but we are coming off of a really low threshold,” said Diane Swonk, an economist based in Chicago. “We’ve shifted gears, but we’re only now beginning to regain the quality in terms of jobs.”
There remains lots of room for added middle wage jobs, Dudley told the Times, but he is optimistic that this could mean the recovery is happening. “This is an important development in the economy,” he said. “If it were to continue, it would create more opportunities for workers and their families who have been struggling up to now.”
While the NY Fed research may be cause for optimism, there is recent competing research that casts doubt on the positive projections. For example, a survey from CareerBuilder projects that while high- and low-wage jobs will grow at 5% over the next 5 years, middle-wage jobs will grow at 3%. For employers, the connection to upskilling could play a serious role in whether or not those middle-wage jobs materialize.
