Total nonfarm payroll rose by 143,000 in January, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and unemployment dropped to 4%, with gains largely in healthcare, retail and social assistance.
Economists praised the ongoing sturdiness of the market — but many also pointed to potential cracks forming, particularly in other metrics.
“Today’s jobs report reflects a market that continues to show sluggishness and remains challenging for those looking for new jobs. 2025 is shaping up to be another year of significant changes,” Ger Doyle, U.S. country manager at ManpowerGroup said in a statement. “Our real-time data show total open job postings declined 3%, indicating a slight contraction in overall job demand.”
Employers may be especially hesitant to make big moves as they await signals from the new administration, Doyle continued.
Additionally, pay pressure is still on for employers, Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, said in a statement. As long as joblessness remains low and the economy continues to run at a stronger-than-expected pace, wages are likely to remain high, she continued.
The 2025 labor market may also run right into a number of demographic issues, particularly an aging workforce and ongoing struggles around immigration with the new administration, experts previously told HR Dive.
“Employers’ ability to maintain a ‘business as usual’ attitude in the face of political noise, rapid policy adjustments and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty has so far helped the overall labor market — and economy — maintain an even keel over the past few months,” Cory Stahle, Indeed Hiring Lab economist, said in a statement. “But past returns are no guarantee of future results, especially in this fast-moving, often volatile age.”
