Dive Brief:
- Friday's May jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics led to much discussion about the state of the economy, as U.S. employers added only 38,000 jobs during the month – well below expectations and the worst month for hiring in six years.
- Yet, despite the overall negativity, there may be a silver lining, according to Fortune. Friday's report also said wages rose 2.5% compared to a year ago (Fortune.com editor Aaron Task admits it's not great but not bad either). Disposable income is up 3.3% from last year and continues to rise.
- In his analysis, Task paints a somewhat balanced picture of Friday's news, saying things are not as bad as they seem for employers and American consumers. But FiveThirtyEight, on the other hand, mentions that while there are counter views on what to make of Friday's news, there is "little doubt" that the overall trend in job growth for 2016 is disappointing.
Dive Insight:
On the upside, FiveThirtyEight says the job slowdown means full employment is near (the unemployment rate dropped to 4.7% in May, the lowest since before 2008.) With more workers unavailable, the theory goes, employers either raise wages or hire people they otherwise wouldn’t consider – all good for the U.S. economy.
But FiveThirtyEight also cites BLS data, as in employers added 2.4 million jobs over the past year, down from the 3 million jobs added during the 12 months ending in April 2015. The site added that a slowdown in temporary hiring and several downward revisions (adjustments lowering hiring numbers in each of the past three months) are indictors of a job market headed in the wrong direction.
Whatever else, FiveThirtyEight's take is it "increasingly appears that the two-year-long hiring boom is over."
